Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 17.634984 20.528166 23.695160 27.412219 31.648068 36.317256 41.846229
2024-10-27 12.015581 15.724391 20.216951 26.026619 33.304092 42.079178 53.417440
2024-11-03 9.956491 14.265343 19.905268 27.749980 38.287266 51.847340 70.494614
2024-11-10 8.765437 13.534356 20.184988 29.995720 43.926601 62.793667 90.024502
2024-11-17 7.340867 12.139371 19.228360 30.253168 46.699736 69.996595 105.066265
2024-11-24 6.091135 10.738798 17.981641 29.804738 48.249306 75.451346 117.963740
2024-12-01 5.021347 9.410365 16.604992 28.895040 48.881407 79.471562 128.944185
2024-12-08 4.320128 8.563763 15.848730 28.814816 50.700500 85.321138 143.030772
2024-12-15 3.790416 7.921324 15.325504 29.015141 52.926885 91.908855 158.695407
2024-12-22 3.081005 6.815159 13.823975 27.315906 51.745571 92.843068 165.286058
2024-12-29 2.828323 6.555133 13.818412 28.264423 55.189194 101.635206 185.377470
2025-01-05 2.663839 6.446164 14.077159 29.714133 59.633762 112.428316 209.569605
2025-01-12 2.269715 5.803809 13.254308 29.106634 60.451912 117.343888 224.691239
2025-01-19 1.856167 5.040482 12.080632 27.677066 59.615130 119.338251 235.050026
2025-01-26 1.766400 5.020663 12.478120 29.505677 65.293025 133.704491 268.852519
2025-02-02 1.720413 5.099558 13.101361 31.880403 72.287504 151.075495 309.457902
2025-02-09 1.535995 4.784500 12.779185 32.152729 74.991880 160.455105 335.734065
2025-02-16 1.332709 4.373352 12.163518 31.678992 76.061031 166.700903 356.433933
2025-02-23 1.133759 3.927082 11.386186 30.717723 75.953468 170.548870 372.672491
2025-03-02 1.004195 3.654160 11.001107 30.632944 77.758485 178.402636 397.401970
2025-03-09 0.903368 3.446070 10.751657 30.844646 80.246467 187.848270 425.989596
2025-03-16 0.740299 2.994562 9.762931 29.048658 77.869438 186.771252 432.770805
2025-03-23 0.694478 2.928303 9.846203 30.051253 82.246415 200.610289 471.777964